What is going to happen with Nature Precedings? The public launch of the “beta” version last summer was met with a lot of positive expectations. Science bloggers have praised it as an initiative to democratize science and as a contribution to the broader open access movement.

But so far the result seems disappointing: only some 500 papers have been submitted, few comments are posted. After the first round of enthusiasm, the hype has faded away. Is it entering the phase of ‘disillusionment’ in the typical hype cycle? (see earlier post about biomed and biotech hype cycles here).

I haven’t seen any serious evaluations of the initiative yet. Will the owners close it down? Or will they let Nature Precedings continue to give it a chance to stabilize (hopefully) at a future ‘plateau of productivity’ á la Gartner.

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