This week Medical Museion is the venue for an international workshop on quantitative studies of major historic epidemic diseases. The workshop is organised within the framwork of the RAPIDD program (Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Dept. Homeland Security, hosted at Fogarty NIH and Princeton University). The three days of workshop will gather a core group of modelers interested in historical infectious diseases and researchers from other relevant disciplines representing history, archival virology, phylogenetics, social science, genealogy, geography, demography, anthropology and economics .

The scope is mainly to explore data availability and methodological issues needed to understand the dynamics of the major historical epidemic diseases in human populations, and address how to draw lessons from historical outbreaks and pandemics to better prepare for the threat of future pandemics.

The sessions on Thursday and Friday are open for the public, , but please enter the auditorium silently from the top stairs, between speakers. See the detailed program below:

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Session I – Historic Demographic Centers and Database Initiatives
Chairs: Lone Simonsen, Willem van Panhuis, Niels Keiding

9:00-9:30 Elisabeth Engberg (Umeå University) and Mattias Sandström Umeå University): The Umeå Demographic Database (Sweden).
9:30-10:00 Willem van Panhuis (University of Pittsburg): The Tycho Brahe Project (USA).
10:00-10:30 Fernanda Drumond (Gapminder Organization): The Gap Minder Project (Global).
11:00-11:30 Lone Simonsen (George Washington University and University of Copenhagen) and Viggo Andreasen (Roskilde University): Fantastic Danish Historic Health Data: Examples of Patterns and Burden of Epidemic Diseases during 1750-1950.
11:30-12:00 Maarten van Wijhe (Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment  – RIVM): Time series of vaccination coverage and age-specific mortality due to vaccine preventable diseases in the Netherlands, 1903 – 2012.
12:00-12:30 Donald Olson (New York City Departement of Health): The NY City Historic Mortality Data Project: Using 1918 historic pandemic patterns to inform the 2009 pandemic (USA).
12:30-13:00 Discussion; Historic Health Data Availability and Rescue, Electronic Databases, Data priorities.

Session II – Modeling Infectious Diseases
Chairs: Viggo Andreasen and Bryan Grenfell

14:00pm Jim Mielke (University of Kansas): Smallpox in Finland 1750-1950.
14:30pm Bryan Grenfell (Princeton University): Models of measles dynamics in the UK.
15:00pm Jessica Metcalf (Princeton University): Analysis of rubella and measles infections in Copenhagen around 1900.
15:30pm Viggo Andreasen (Roskilde University), Cecile Viboud (National Institutes of Health, Fogarty International Center) and Lone Simonsen (University of Copenhagen): Using Danish Data to Model Transmission and Impact of 1889 and 1918 pandemics: Explaining Multiple Pandemic Waves.
16:15pm Ottar Bjornstadt (Penn State University): Long-term dynamics of pertussis.
16:45pm Virginia Pitzer (Yale University): Modeling typhoid fever outbreaks in the US.
17:15pm Jacco Wallinga (Dutch National Institiute for Public Health and the Enironment – RIVM): Searching for variables that explain the variability in transmission intensity of infectious diseases.
17:45pm Discussion of Statistical and dynamic disease modeling: What can be gained, what are the unanswered questions, Challenges experienced, data need for validation.

Friday, August 15th, 2014

Session III – Archaeo-microbiology
Chairs: Cecile Viboud and Tom Gilbert

9:00 Tom Gilbert (University of Copenhagen): What can be gained from archaeo-microbiology?
9:30 Mike Worobey (University of Arizona): Nailing the origins of influenza A viruses – the role of animals and humananimal interactions.
10:00 Ab Osterhaus (Erasmus University Medical Center): Long-time Perspective on human diseases originating from animals.
10:45 – noon Discussion: Looking for synergy between archaeo-microbiology, phylogenetics, and epidemiological modeling. Is it Possible? What questions to ask?

Session IV – Context and Policy: Epidemiologic/Demographic Transition in Historic and Contemporary Populations
Chairs: Lisa Sattenspiel and Ib Bygbjerg

14:00-14:20 Andrew Noymer (University of California, Irvine): An overview of hypotheses regarding “Epidemiologic Transition”: Controversies and Data Needs to Address Those.
14:20-14:40 Lisa Sattenspiel (University of Missouri): An Example: The epidemiologic transition in Newfoundland.
14:40-15:00 Lone Simonsen (George Washington University and University of Copenhagen): The epidemiologic transition in Denmark around 1900.
15:00-15:20 Hannes Schwandt (Princeton University): Seasonality in birth, socio-economic status and infectious diseases.
15:20-15:40 Viginia Pitzer (Yale University): Modeling the Effect of Intervention Programs: Making Predictions about non-linear effects of the Rotavirus Vaccine Introduction.
15:40-16:00 Ib Bygbjerg (University of Copenhagen): Epidemiologic transitions in contemporary global populations.
16:00-16:40 Discussion Epidemiologic Transitions, Role of Public Health Interventions, Economic Improvements and Vaccine Programs; relevance of historic transitions to contemporary; Data needed to address various hypotheses of ”transitions”.

Medical Museion, Bredgade 62, 1260 Copenhagen K.

Lone Simonsen, Visiting Lundbeck Professor, School of Global Health at the University of Copenhagen, and Dept. of Global Health at the George Washington University.
Cecile Viboud, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health.
Viggo Andreasen, Department of Models and Systems, Roskilde University.
Bryan Grenfell, Departent of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University.

Workshop Sponsors:
Research an Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics Network (RAPIDD), Dept Homeland Security, hosted at Fogarty NIH and Princeton University.
Medical Museion, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen.
Roskilde University
The Lundbeck Foundation.
For further infomation please contact organizer Lone Simonsen.


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